By Grant Nicholson, Australian Government Digital Profession Lead Capability Architect shares
Quantum technologies may be as revolutionary and impactful as the development of the computer. As we all get ready to embrace it, this article points out a few things that senior APS leaders should take into account even if they don’t understand what ‘quantum’ all about.
Defence against quantum hype
There is much misunderstanding about what ‘quantum’ is and particularly the power of quantum computing. It will generally be overstated by vendors and technologists, but we need APS senior leaders to understand the fundamentals so that they are not misled into inappropriate commitments.
The truth is that quantum computers are much slower than current ‘classical’ computers for sequential processing, but have a fantastic advantage for parallel computing tasks where one outcome is sought, which may be hidden amongst scores of billions of possible outcomes. Quantum computers are also fantastically expensive, though the cost will reduce over time.
So for many (probably most) tasks a classical computer will be the far superior choice. But there will be a small sub-set of problems where the cost may be warranted and we need our senior leaders to be able to recognise what those are.
Readiness for ‘post-quantum cryptography’
Cryptography is embedded in most software and electronic devices presently. Everything from mobiles phones and the internet, to Microsoft Word and your home WiFi router. Even your fridge and car maybe using encrypted communications to talk to you and/or your mechanic.
Almost all current cryptography uses an algorithm which, at its heart, relies on a mathematical problem that is very difficult for modern computers to solve (without the encryption key). It may take a classical computer hundreds or thousands of years to solve that problem and thereby break the encryption.
A quantum computer would be able to solve the mathematical problem underpinning modern encryption relatively easily. Encryption that may take a classical computer hundreds or thousands of years to crack may be cracked by a quantum computer in a matter of hours. This means that everything currently encrypted with today’s technology will, in the near future, be potentially open to anyone with access to a quantum computer.
While the quantum computers are not ready to do that yet, nefarious actors could be stealing encrypted data now and holding it for a few years until they can decrypt it. If the data is sensitive enough, it could be well worth the wait.
So, what we need to be doing is changing the current encryption in everything from databases to secure communications, so that it will be secure even if someone has a quantum computer. The encryption techniques needed can be run on a classical computer, so we could (and should) do that retrofitting now.
This refitting is not straight forward. Because encryption is built into so many things there is a lot of work that needs to be done and we need to start doing it now, as it may take 5 to 10 years to fully achieve. Senior leaders need to recognise the significance of this and be prepared to support investment in it. Waiting until the quantum computers have arrived will be too late.
Strategic impacts of Quantum technology
Quantum technologies are already having an impact in certain areas of industry, and this will continue to grow. Some of the areas to be impacted include:
- super sensitive sensors that will render current measuring and diagnostic tools obsolete
- new quantum encryption and secure communications techniques that could render the internet obsolete
- optimisation and simulation problems that currently cannot be solved in real time may enable new services and products, improving efficiency and improving our lives
- nascent Australian quantum technology companies may move offshore if the potential value of the quantum sector is not appreciated and supported by government.
When devising policy and strategies, APS senior leaders need to be aware of the potential impact of quantum technologies either as an enabler or disrupter to industry. There is also a role that government can play by being an early adopter or facilitator of quantum technologies.
